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I've been thinking about, and running courses on, assessment for a long time. In a mini essay called Assessment and the black swan problem, I discuss an issue that I think receives scant attention.
I've gone into more depth than I think feasible in a normal blog post, and packaged it up in the form of a pdf. If you subscribe to Digital Education you'll receive it automatically by email. You can do so by completing this form, and then confirming that you wish to subscribe.
If you already subscribe, you'll find it on the subscribers' only page of the ICT & Computing in Education website.
I hope you find it useful.