Dystopian visions: The Snowball Effect
In this series I am looking at some classic science fiction stories and suggesting how they might be used as the basis for discussions in Computing (and related subjects) classes. The Computing Programme of Study in England gives plenty of scope for discussing the ramifications of developments in technology. The aims, in particular, include the following broad statements:
The national curriculum for computing aims to ensure that all pupils:
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- can evaluate and apply information technology, including new or unfamiliar technologies, analytically to solve problems
- are responsible, competent, confident and creative users of information and communication technology
Spoiler alert: in order to discuss these stories, I have had to reveal the plot and the outcome. However, in each case I’ve provided a link to a book in which you can find the story, should you wish to read it first.
In The Snowball Effect, by Katherine Maclean, the focus is on mathematics, or an innovation called “social mathematics” to be accurate. This probably sounds rather dry, but it was really quite prescient.
Published in 1952, the plot is that a professor of Sociology has taken the mathematical model devised by Ludwig von Bertalanffy to explain the growth of organisms, and applied it to organisations. (As a side note, it’s interesting that Maclean cites two real scientists in the story: I checked!) As an experiment, his model is applied to a small town sewing circle with 30 members. It involves identifying a strong leader, and getting her or him to apply the methods specified by the model.
So, does the approach work?
After a few months the growth graph of the sewing club has almost gone off the page vertically. It swallows up other sewing clubs by merging with them, changes its name, and devises recruiting techniques which sound a lot like the sort of thing an organisation might do to convince people that this is the club everyone should belong to. The professor and the dean of his university work out that at the current rate of growth, the “sewing club” will have become a world government within 12 years. What happens after that, nobody can even guess.
Far-fetched? Perhaps. But think of the psychological tricks that large social media organisations and app-designers use to grow their user numbers and usage. True, it’s based on psychology and dopamine hits, but what their approach, and that of Nudge Theory, have in common is that they use cold science to effect changes in people’s behaviour.
Is this ethically ok? If, as in the case of Nudge Theory, you hope to change behaviour for the greater social good, does the end justify the means?
